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are actually achieving little of each At times when both bonds and stocks are beginning to weaken, the only area that seems to offer not only protection, but real profit potential, lies in the commodity markets represented by the CRB Index THE CRB/BOND RATIO LEADS THE CRB/STOCK RATIO Another conclusion that can be drawn from studying these two ratios shown in Figure 127 and 128 is that the CRB Index/bond ratio usually leads the CRB Index/S&P 500 ratio This is easily explained The bond market is more sensitive to inflation pressures and is more closely tied to the CRB Index The negative impact of rising inflation on stocks is more delayed and not as strong Therefore, it would seem logical to expect the commodity/bond ratio to turn first Used in this fashion, the CRB/bond ratio can be used as a leading indicator for stocks.

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The CRB/bond ratio started to rally strongly in the spring of 1987 while the CRB/stock ratio was still falling (Figure 127) The result was the October 1987 stock market crash The CRB/bond ratio bottomed out in August of 1989 and preceded the final bottom in the CRB/stock ratio two months later in October In both instances, turning points in the CRB/stock ratio were anticipated by turns in the CRB Index/bond ratio Figure 129 provides another way to study the effect of the commodity/bond ratio on stocks Figure 129 compares the commodity/bond ratio (bottom chart) with the action in the S&P 500 Index over the five years since 1986 By studying the areas marked off by the arrows, it can be seen that a rising CRB Index/bond ratio has usually been followed by or accompanied by weak stock prices.

The two most striking examples occurred during 1987 and late 1989 The rising ratio during the first half of 1988 didn't actually push stock prices lower but prevented equities from advancing The major advance in stock prices during 1988 didn't really begin until the CRB/bond ratio peaked out that summer and started to drop A falling ratio has usually been accompanied by firm or rising stock prices The most notable examples of the bullish impact of a falling ratio on stocks in Figure 129 can be seen from the fourth quarter of 1986 to the first quarter of 1987 and the period from the summer of 1988 to the summer of 1989 A falling ratio during the early 1980s also provided a bullish environment for stocks (not shown here).

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The study of the CRB Index/bond ratio tells a lot about which way the inflation winds are blowing, which of these two markets is in the ascendancy at the moment, and sheds light on prospects for the stock market A falling CRB/bond ratio is bullish for stocks A sharply rising ratio is a bearish warning CAN FUTURES PLAY A ROLE IN ASSET ALLOCATION With the development of financial futures over the past twenty years, futures traders can now participate in all financial sectors Individual commodities, representing the oldest sector of the futures world, can be traded on various exchanges Metals and energy markets are traded in New York, whereas most agricultural commodities are traded in Chicago CRB Index futures provide a way to use a basket approach to the commodity markets Interest-rate futures provide exposure to Treasury bills, notes, and bonds as well as the short-term Eurodollar market.

Stock index futures offer a basket approach to trading general trends in the stock market Foreign currency futures and the US-Dollar Index provide vehicles for participation in foreign exchange trends All four sectors.